A model to estimate the unavoidable increase in cancer incidence in some countries around the Mediterranean basin: A case study on Egypt.
Amal S Ibrahim*National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, EgyptCitation:
Ibrahim AS (2019) A model to estimate the unavoidable increase in cancer incidence in some countries around the Mediterranean basin: A case study on Egypt. SciTech Oncology 2019. Dubai: UAE
Received: March 08, 2019 Accepted: March 10, 2019 Published: March 11, 2019
Decision makers and planners need a reliable estimate of future cancer burden, mainly incidence rates. Aging being an inevitable consequence of demographic transition; is the most important non-modifiable cancer risk. Older individuals at higher risk for cancer become a proportionally larger share of the total population; usually accompanied by population growth. We developed a model to estimate the impact of the two factors on future number of incident cases. The available age specific incidence rates (ASIR) by gender in 5-year age groups are multiplied by size of the corresponding population over successive years. The sum of these products for each year is the number of incident cases attributed to aging and population. Crude and standardized rates and proportion of increase attributed to each factor could be calculated. The model was applied in Egypt to get projections up to 2050 using 2011 cancer registry ASIRs and projected population pyramids. During the study period, population increased 1.6 times compared to 3 times increase in incident cancer; more marked for cancers of the elderly mainly prostate and lung. Childhood cancer was estimated to increase 1.2 times only. The model estimate for 2015 was approximately 124,000 incident cases compared to 128,000 in Globocan 2018. The proportion of increase due to aging in creased from 44.8% to 67.2%. The model could be applied to other Mediterranean countries having variable demographic characteristics with possible addition of the Human Development index proved by previous study to be positively correlated with cancer incidence in countries around Mediterranean basin.