SciTech Central COVID-19
  • Follow

Accepted Abstracts

Modeling and Forecasting the Process of Producing Wine Using Econometric Package Eviews

Sapaev Dilshod*
Tashkent State Economic University, Republic of Uzbekistan

Citation: Dilshod S (2020) Modeling and Forecasting the Process of Producing Wine Using Econometric Package Eviews. SciTech Central COVID-19

Received: August 14, 2020         Accepted: August 15, 2020         Published: August 15, 2020


Within the framework of in-depth economic transformations in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the issue of modeling the production process is becoming more urgent. When considering the complex cluster system for the development of the industry, modeling of the production process takes a special place. When determining the strategic goals of the industry development, the formation of a model for forecasting and planning future results of the industry becomes relevant. This requires considering statistical data related to the industry, accounting for factors affecting the development of the industry and the level of interaction of cluster objects. Our scientific work is aimed at developing proposals for improving the grape and wine cluster in the conditions of the Tashkent region of the Republic of Uzbekistan. For this, we proposed a methodology for modeling and forecasting the receipt of finished products for the next few years. The proposed model is based on the use of the EVIEWS econometric package. A forecast was made for obtaining finished wine products, obtaining a gross grape harvest, grape sowing area, grape yield from 1 hectare for the period 2019-2024. Our next task was to develop a model for determining a competitive grape variety based on the characteristics of the region. It took into account the regional factors of the development of the viticulture-wine branch. Determination of competitive grape varieties will identify the most favorable regions for growing given grape variety. Scientific work is carried out within the framework of the decrees of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan aimed at developing and improving the management of the viticulture-wine branch. The results of planning and forecasting will affect the further indicators of the production chain "forecasting - planning - growing - processing - realization". In its tern results of the study showed acceptability of the proposed model for the development of the strategy for the development of the viticulture-wine-making branch.