Forecasting and projecting mortality is made easier by probability distributions. It is feasible to extrapolate and anticipate future mortality rates or survival probabilities by fitting probability distributions to historical mortality data. In order to properly explore the effects of various mortality structures, different probability distributions and distributional characteristics may be taken into account. In this study, COVID-19 mortality measures based on the daily-reported data were modelled and compared using Exponential and Hyperbolic Exponential growth equations. Nigeria data was used to compute case fatality rate, infection fatality rate and the crude death rate which were modelled using Weibull, Lognormal, Exponential and Gamma probability distributions. Exponential and Hyperbolic Exponential Growth models were used to forecast the likelihood of emerging cases and death due to Covid-19 using Nigeria Data with varying non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Keywords: Coronavirus disease-2019, Distribution, Probability, Mortality, Hyperbolic growth models, Non-pharmaceutical interventions